A mega-study involving more than 18,000 people in multiple polls over recent weeks forecasts the Tories are on course for their worst election defeat in history, with Reform splitting the vote.
Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt among prominent MPs at risk of losing their seatsThe Conservatives face being reduced to a rump of 80 MPs as a surging Reform UK threatens to cost them dozens of seats, according to analysis.
Under either scenario it would be worse than the 156 MPs the Tories won in 1906, the party's worst ever result in a general election. The analysis also shows how vulnerable the Tories are to being outflanked by Lib Dems among more moderate voters in the so-called Blue Wall home counties in the South. One YouGov poll last week put Reform on 16 per cent of vote share, within touching distance of the Conservatives on 21 per cent. In some Red Wall seats in the North and Midlands, Reform are polling narrowly ahead of the Tories.
It found Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has a one point lead over the Liberal Democrats in Godalming and Ash.
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