As some residents and businesses migrate to the suburbs amid the pandemic, Marcus & Millichap's Hessam Nadji sees a downtown rebound similar to that in the years after 9/11.
Some of the largest cities seeing residents migrate to the outskirts include New York City, Seattle and Miami, according to Marcus & Millichap. People are also flowing from primary metro areas to secondary markets such as Phoenix, Salt Lake City and Nashville, Tennessee.
"It was a trend that was starting to happen already over the last two or three years. You have to remember that 60% of millennials are now in their 30s," Nadji said. "While they really enjoyed the lifestyle of central business districts and the lack of commuting ... we were beginning to see them migrate back out as they were getting married and having kids," and the "health crisis has really accelerated that pattern.
Some businesses have followed that migration of residents to the suburbs, opening up satellite campuses for employees who are reluctant to commute in and ride elevators to avoid contracting the fast-spreading disease, Nadji said.Nadji, however, advises not to count these cities out just yet, pointing back to the rebounding interest of living in New York City after the attacks on the Twin Towers there nearly two decades ago.
To think that people will "permanently" lose interest in central business districts is an "overreaction," he said, adding that "we are reacting to a health crisis" that should be resolved "at some point." "We saw that [demand sap] post 9/11 and those tragedies, of course, because of the reluctance to want to locate in high-visibility high rises in downtown[s]," Nadji explained. "Eighteen to 24 months later, that [concern] began to dissipate. So, it's a normal reaction. I just don't think we should count out the long-term prospects of the benefits of central business districts.
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