'If you ain't first, you're last.' - Ricky Bobby
, meaning three division winners and three wild cards will make the field.
Let’s take a look at the issues here through the very evenly matched AL wild-card race. At this stage, it’s less a battle to make the playoffs and more a battle for positioning. It’s also very evenly matched. The three wild-card teams are the Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays.. Their run differentials are within 18. The No. 4, No. 5 and No.
No. 6 seed: On the road against the Guardians — a worse team than any of the wild cards, then an ALDS matchup against the Yankees, whose struggles in a 23-28 second half are well-documented. Take the current order — Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays. If they started the playoffs today, the projection would give the No. 6 seed Rays an 45.4% chance of beating Cleveland, while the No. 5 seed Mariners would have a 42.8% chance of toppling Toronto.
Variations on that math holds true for all three clubs, no matter how you line it up. The model gives the No. 6 seed better World Series odds than the No. 5 seed in every scenario except where the Blue Jays are the No. 5 seed. Those numbers hover just north of 7%, where the No. 4 seed will likely have World Series odds between 9.5% and 10% entering the playoffs.
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