Economic troubles cast doubt on the future of Xi’s agenda.
As all wonder how China will act in response to the standoff between Russia and NATO, it may be wise to remember the advice of former Clinton advisor and current day political commentator James Carville: “It’s the economy, stupid.” In this case, it is a matter of the Chinese economy and President Xi Jinping’s freedom of action. China faces an array of economic troubles, and evidence is emerging that they are creating resistance to President Xi’s agenda and possibly his power.
Political maneuvering often happens in the shadows, especially in China. But if the disputes and back-stabbing in Beijing are usually hidden from view, no one should doubt that they occur. True, America’s legacy media often writes and speaks as if China’s leadership has an unanimity of purpose. This easy but naive assumption defies both human nature and experience.
The fate of Evergrande, the once-great property developer, heads the list of Xi’s troubles. With the equivalent of $300 billion in liabilities, the firm’s management recently announced the default that for months all knew was inevitable. As indicated in this column last September, Evergrande was never alone in carrying unsustainable debt. Other defaults have since been announced.
A lot of blame has fallen on the managements of these developers, but still the troubles have emerged on Xi’s watch, alone a concern for him. What is more, reasonable people, even in China’s government, are aware that much of the problem stems from official Beijing’s long promotion of real estate development, almost without regard to what Chinese buyers wanted to buy or where. Both considerations have bolstered doubts about Xi’s centralizing agenda.
In addition to these serious financial matters, China’s economic prospects have also suffered from the waves of Covid that, if not Xi’s fault, nonetheless weaken his position, and from power shortages that clearly reflect badly on central government policy. Many have expressed skepticism of the recent announcement that China’s economy grew 8 percent in real terms last year. And as if to confirm such skepticism, China’s Academy of Social Science recently announced a projection of only 5.
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