At the very end of 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on countermeasures against the price cap on Russian crude, but with the ban on oil products looming in February, what will be the Kremlin’s next move?
for Russian seaborne oil. The decree bans the sale of oil and oil products if the sales contract is based on a price cap for Russian oil, although the decree allows Putin the right to make exceptions to the application of this rule. The ban will become effective as from 1 February 2023 and will apply ‘to Russian oil shipments to foreign legal entities or individuals under any contracts envisaging, directly or indirectly, any application of the price cap mechanism’.
As with all matters relating to the global oil market there are two basic versions of ‘reality’ to consider: the official version and the unofficial version: spoiler alert – people with a lot to lose or a lot to gain frequently lie. Officially, some pricing in of the supply risk attached to the aforementioned ban and Russia’s reaction to it would appear to be justified.
More broadly, as at the end of January 2022, also according to the IEA, Russia’s total global oil exports were 7.8 million bpd, two-thirds of which were crude and condensate. Therefore, using the likely scenario range above, the global oil markets would only lose between 0.78 million bpd and 1.95 million bpd of pre-Ukraine invasion levels of Russian oil, even with the cap in place, regardless of all other factors.
So, why is Putin firing off verbal warning salvos about the US$60 price cap, then? It seems clear enough that he is doing so in order that no one gets it into their heads to bring the price cap down to the levels originally mooted – of between US$20-30 per barrel of Brent equivalent – which would put Russian oil sales into a loss. The bottom line is that Putin, and Russia’s oil firms, are perfectly content to have an oil price cap of US$60 per barrel of Brent equivalent.
Moreover, the U.S. is perfectly content for India – one of the two biggest buyers of Russian oil since February 2022 – to continue to do so, including at prices above the G7-imposed price cap mechanism if necessary, according to comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in November 2022. After all, it suits the U.S.
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