The debate over how to define a recession has spawned a lot of confusion. It may be impossible to stop the rhetorical crossfire over the definition of a recession, but economists warn against hasty conclusions.
other economists from Harvard, Princeton, Northwestern, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of California, San Diego.to determine the start of a recession, namely "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." Every recession requires "depth, diffusion, and duration" of economic hurt.
The committee says it weighs a variety of factors, including inflation-adjusted personal income, nonfarm payrolls, household employment data, inflation-adjusted personal expenditures, inflation-adjusted manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production., a former committee member, Harvard economist Benjamin Friedman, argued that the committee’s more holistic approach is superior to an inflexible definition like the two-quarters standard.
The biggest shortcoming of NBER’s system is that it isn’t done in real time. The fastest determinations have occurred about four months after a recession’s start; the slowest have come 21 months later.
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