Belief in conspiracy theories and overconfidence are two tendencies linked to hasty thinking.
How much time do you spend doing research before you make a big decision? The answer for many of us, it turns out, is hardly any. Before buying a car, for instance, most people make two or fewer trips to a dealership.
To study jumping, we examined decision-making patterns among more than 600 people from the general population. Because much of the work on this type of bias comes from studies of schizophrenia , we borrowed a thinking game used in that area of research. For instance, the earlier people jumped, the more likely they were to endorse conspiracy theories, such as the idea that the Apollo moon landings had been faked. Such individuals were also more likely to believe in paranormal phenomena and medical myths, such as the idea that health officials are actively hiding a link between cell phones and cancer.
Jumpers also had problems with overconfidence: on a quiz about U.S. civics, they overestimated the chance that their answers were right significantly more than other participants did—even when their answers were wrong. We used several assessments that teased apart how automatic our participants’ responses were and how much they engaged in deliberate analysis. We found that jumpers and nonjumpers were equally swayed by automatic thoughts. The jumpers, however, did not engage in controlled reasoning to the same degree as nonjumpers.
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