Paul Krugman: Will 2024 be the vaccine election?

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Paul Krugman: Will 2024 be the vaccine election?
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Paul Krugman: 'Anyone who imagines that replacing Trump with DeSantis as the GOP’s leader would signal a party on its way to becoming sane again is in for a rude shock.'

Gov. Ron DeSantis at a rally in Hialeah, on Nov. 7, 2022.Will Republicans once again nominate Donald Trump for president? Or will they turn to Ron DeSantis instead? I have no idea.

Have the vaccines worked? And how. There are multiple ways to evaluate their lifesaving effect, but I’m especially taken with a simple approach promoted by analyst Charles Gaba, who looks at the correlation across U.S. counties between vaccination rates and COVID death rates. Between May 2021, when two-dose vaccinations first became widespread, and September, the least-vaccinated 10% of counties suffered a death rate more than three times as high as the most-vaccinated.

You can, by the way, see the same patterns at the level of whole states. For example, although New York was hit hard in the first months of the pandemic , since May 2021 more than twice as many people have died of COVID in Florida than in New York. Even taking Florida’s slightly larger and much older population into account, that’s thousands of excess deaths in the Sunshine State.

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