On the list of unfortunate economies that markets think might soon follow Sri Lanka into debt default and economic crisis, Pakistan sits near the top
, Pakistan’s public-debt load is high for a poor country, but below the level of many other vulnerable economies. Importantly, it owes much less to foreigners, and does not rely very heavily on bond markets. Pakistan’s funding problems mostly stem from bad timing; it owes a lot to external creditors over the next year, at a time when global financial conditions are deteriorating and the cost of imports is spiking. If it can survive this pinch point, Mr Syed reckons, things will look up.
Hopes for survival received a big boost on July 13th, when the government concluded an agreement with theto revive a pre-existing bail-out arrangement, clearing the way for about $1.2bn to flow in. With that money, Pakistan just about has the financing to meet an estimated $35bn in external obligations over the next year.
The problem with this plan is that it leaves little margin for error. Pakistan’s current-account deficit, which mostly reflects that more is being spent onthan foreigners are spending on Pakistan’s exports, is responsible for a huge share of its projected financing needs over the coming year. If in the coming months that deficit turns out to be larger than anticipated then the sums no longer add up.
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