Investors' fears that the new weight-loss drugs will hamstring Big Food companies are overblown.
Late last week, a new fear gripped Wall Street: That weight loss drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are going to destroy the U.S. market for sugary snacks. Investors piled into the trade, and on Thursday, shares of the Coca-Cola Company had their worst day since 2020, dropping 4.8%.
But investors betting on the end of processed food are overlooking the vast uncertainties that lie between the current obesity drug landscape, where the number of patients on Wegovy in the U.S. is in the “hundreds of thousands,” according to Novo, and a theoretical future where nearly a quarter of American adults are on the drugs, and lose their taste for products from snack food behemoths like Coca-Cola .
Wegovy costs more than $16,000 a year. Paying for such an expensive medicine for so many people, even factoring in the rebates the drugmakers will likely pay to pharmacy-benefit managers, is simply outside of the scale of anything the U.S. healthcare system has seen before. Insurers and government agencies simply can’t afford that, and it’s hard to imagine a situation where they pay it.
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