NEW: FiveThirtyEight's new polling averages show Joe Biden leading Pres. Trump by nine points nationally—but the race is closer in swing states.
Movement in the polls following these events is likely to be real and not statistical noise, so we made these tweaks so that the polling average responds more aggressively following them. Although, as I mentioned in the case of convention bounces, the polls can sometimes revert to the mean a few weeks later, so some of these event-based gains might still be short-lived.At this point, we want to give you a deep dive on what we’re adjusting for in our polling averages.
The way the likely voter adjustment works is by starting with historical priors based on the effects that likely voter screens tend to have, but then adjusting these priors as polls are released that provide direct comparisons of likely voter and registered voter versions of the same poll.For instance, if the same poll has Biden ahead by 6 points among registered voters but only up by 4 points among likely voters, that helps us to calibrate the adjustment.
Republican candidates generally tend to gain more ground from likely voter screens than Democratic ones do, since Republican voters tend to be older and whiter, which are. However, challengers — regardless of party — tend to gain ground in likely voter polls relative to incumbents, probably because some low-propensity voters may choose the incumbent as a default, whereas likely voters have thought through their choice more carefully.
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