A slow, steady and deliberate race to the Sea of Azov will divide Russia’s army.
Russian rockets are launched against Ukraine from Russia’s Belgorod region, seen from Kharkiv, Ukraine on July 16. It’s fair to say Ukraine’s counteroffensive is moving slower than anticipated — but for good reason. We’ve all heard the saying, “Slow and steady wins the race.
For those who are disheartened by the slow pace of the Ukrainian offensive so far, it’s pertinent to remember historical examples. Immediately after the D-Day landings during World War II, one of the most spectacularly successful military campaigns in history, Allied forces fought desperately to crack entrenched German positions. They advanced only a few miles from their beachheads in several weeks of hard fighting before finally breaking through and advancing rapidly.
However, Ukraine is not fighting on paper, and it possesses a number of advantages over the Russians. First, the Russian army is not a healthy organization, and unhealthy armies tend to fracture and disintegrate in the face of sustained pressure. The Wagner Group rebellion led by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in June was simply the tip of the iceberg.
Another advantage is that while the Ukrainians are achieving success on the front lines, albeit in slow and incremental ways, they are steadily degrading supply depots, logistics commands and major headquarters throughout the depth of Russian defenses thanks to excellent intelligence and precision weaponry. Over time, these strikes on high-value targets are likely to achieve the type of cumulative effects that create gaps and pockets of weakness the Ukrainians can exploit with rapid advances.
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