'Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons should not be construed as hollow.'
Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons should not be construed as hollowFew people predicted the extraordinary events unfolding in the Russo-Ukraine conflict. The idea that that Ukraine could make the advances it has, and envision driving their enemy back to its borders, seemed inconceivable when Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine. Three mistaken assumptions were made by skeptical supporters of Ukraine such as myself.
The third mistaken assumption, however, involved an underestimation of Ukrainian resolve and the inspirational appeal of freedom. That was what gripped the hearts and minds of so many in the global community. The dialectical irony is stark: each victory, each step towards freedom, by Ukraine increases the probability of a"tactical" nuclear strike by Russia. It is hard to believe that Putin will suddenly exhibit a sense of humanity as one defeat follows another, the economic impact of sanctions grows, and the loss of power threatens.
President Biden's insistence that the United States would respond with a strike of its own was a predictable response. Putin surely knew it was coming, and it shouldn't have much impact on any future decision that he might make. Other factors are more important. A second front might open in Belarus and the likelihood of a Russian counter-offensive, foreshadowed by the deadly October 2022 bombings of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, should not be underestimated.
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