Europe is worried about Iran's support for Russia. One plan of action to fight it could be very bad news for protesters.
in the hope that it will help protesters in Iran.
The consequences of a collapsed nuclear deal, however, have not changed. Without restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, the risk of a military confrontation that the West can ill afford increases dramatically. The U.S. and the E.U. are already bracing themselves for the potential political and economic consequences of a prolonged war in Ukraine, and tensions continue to brew over Taiwan.
Nor will such a conflict help the pro-democracy protesters in Iran. The examples of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria provide ample evidence that military conflict favors security elements within a state far more so than pro-democracy voices.
Undoubtedly, designating the IRGC would give short-term gratification to many in the Iranian diaspora who have watched in horror the brutal repression of protests in Iran. But it would be a different matter if the measure actually reduced the IRGC’s ability to repress the public while enhancing the protesters’ capacity to resist.
For the protesters, at best, it merely signals the illegitimacy of the Iranian theocracy. At worst, it risks triggering a cascade of events that is more likely to turn Iran into Syria rather than into Switzerland.
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