Open-source intelligence is piercing the fog of war in Ukraine

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Open-source intelligence is piercing the fog of war in Ukraine
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  • 📰 TheEconomist
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Social-media posts and satellite imagery provide a torrent of data, but can overwhelm and confuse

1982 Robert Fox had just witnessed 36 hours of intense warfare over Goose Green, a remote spot on the Falkland Islands, an archipelago in the South Atlantic then being fought over by Britain and Argentina. It was the decisive battle of the war and it had gone Britain’s way. Mr Fox, then aradio correspondent, was keen to tell listeners. It took him ten hours to get to a satellite phone aboard a warship, he recalls. It took another eight hours to decrypt his text in London.

Telegram has become a platform for Russian ultra-nationalists, supportive of the war but dissatisfied with its conduct, to air their grievances against Russia’s military leadership. Popular accounts have circulated images of troops without basic equipment. During the Kherson offensive in early October, one panicked Russian account even used Telegram to make a desperate plea for air support.

As Russia mobilises hundreds of thousands of recruits, most with little experience of a warzone and minimal security training, this vulnerability is likely to grow. “A lot of them see posting on social media as part of their tour of duty,” says Mr Bullock. He recalls tracking a Russian volunteer who was sent to Kherson province in June.

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