OPEC and Russia are likely to extend their oil production deal at least through midyear, but if they don't, it will blindside the oil market.
OPEC and Russia, or OPEC Plus, meet in Vienna next week, and it is widely expected oil ministers will extend their production cut agreement to June or even the end of next year.
The ministers head into the Dec. 5 and 6 meeting with oil prices near their highest levels in two months. OPEC and Russia and other allies have an ongoing agreement to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels a day, with the biggest cuts coming from Saudi Arabia. Croft expects the deal to be extended until June, and then ministers will again review it. Many other analysts expect the cuts will be extended as well, but some believe OPEC and Russia could cut even more.The meeting comes at a key time for Saudi Arabia, which will be issuing stock in its state-run Saudi Aramco for the first time ever, just as OPEC's meeting gets underway.
"The Russian intentions will be a critical aspect of it for the future, especially with them wanting some wiggle room on the condensate and potentially produce more. They'll be in the deal in name only," said Kilduff. But most analysts say the agreement has support from President Vladimir Putin and that's what matters most.
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