One-two punch of new virus, falling oil prices threaten Iraq

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One-two punch of new virus, falling oil prices threaten Iraq
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The economic fallout from the new coronavirus coupled with a sudden drop in oil prices threatens to catapult Iraq into an unprecedented crisis. The crude-exporting country is struggling to finance measures to contain the pandemic.

In this Tuesday, March 10, 2020 photo, people shop in the main Shurja market, in central Baghdad, Iraq. The economic fallout from the new coronavirus coupled with a sudden drop in oil prices threatens to catapult Iraq into an unprecedented crisis. The crude-exporting country is struggling to finance measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic amid a leadership void in the federal government.

Gone are the dozens of buses primarily from neighboring Iran, the Gulf and Europe carrying visitors to the Imam Hussein shrine and filling up Karbala’s hotels and restaurants. “It is necessary to legislate an emergency budget in the short term that provides financial sustainability at this stage to meet the necessary needs,” he added.

Other officials expressed optimism that oil prices would bounce back in a matter of months and that Iraq could rely on central bank reserves in the meantime. Based on assessments from the bank and the Finance Ministry these reserves stand between $45-60 billion. Oil currently trades at around $26 per barrel, the lowest in 18 years and about half of what Iraq has projected to fund the state budget for this year. If prolonged, Baghdad will be unable to pay public sector employees and deliver basic services. Iraq’s deficit, which is estimated at $40 billion, would also double, Iraqi officials said.

Transport, trade, tourism and commerce are among the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic, according to senior Iraqi officials, experts and businessmen.

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