Infectious disease specialists and vaccine developers interviewed by Yahoo News said that even accepting some encouraging research at face value, it is unclear if or when an effective vaccine will be available.
The announcement on May 18 that a candidate vaccine for the coronavirus appeared to create an immune response in a handful of people sent spirits, and the stock market, soaring. President Trump has raised the tantalizing possibility that the COVID-19 pandemic could be ended by a vaccine as soon as the start of next year.
Rutherford added that he has been buoyed by how relatively positive the government’s top infectious disease specialist Dr. Anthony Fauci has been regarding the prospects for a vaccine in the next 12 to 18 months, but he said that the timetable for manufacturing and distributing a vaccine could be far longer than estimates thus far have allowed for.
Along with several other experts, Rutherford said that while he hopes a vaccine is available by the middle of next year, there are no guarantees. He said that he has more hope for a vaccine in the next year or two because this coronavirus appears not to mutate significantly and, unlike HIV, for which there is still no approved vaccine despite decades of research, it does not attack a key cell in the immune system.
“Part of this trial involves finding the right dose — one that is effective but doesn’t make people sick,” Haydon told Yahoo News in an email interview. “The high dose might be too high. Moderna, the company behind this vaccine, won’t be testing the high dose in future trials.” “Even if the vaccine were to produce an effective protection, it may be that we need to be revaccinated every year or every two years — it’s just unknown how long the response to the vaccine is going to last,” Walt said.
“It was tested in a large number of people over a long period of time — years — and then once it was scaled [up], some kids exhibited symptoms of polio because the virus was not completely inactivated,” Walt said. “They were rare events but nonetheless pretty dramatic and not what we want to have if something like this scaled and caused lots of adverse effects.”
Offit said it helps that the large body of work already done on coronaviruses is available to researchers because it allows them to better predict how the COVID-19 vaccine might work. He said that studies done years ago with human coronavirus suggest that a vaccine will offer protection since most people were still protected a year after vaccination.
“You have to recruit those people — you have to recruit them in areas hopefully where there’s outbreaks or ongoing infections so that you can capture enough people in the placebo group so you can say the vaccine is effective,” he said. “I just don’t see that happening in the fall.”
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