And the Gulf states know it
symposium held in Vienna last July saw concerted efforts to show the cartel to be effective and united. Pressure from Russia, one of ten countries that align themselves with, for a higher production quota was faced down in April, when it agreed instead to cut production along with the rest of the cartel. A squabble between Saudi Arabia and the, which had demanded an increase in its quotas to accommodate a planned big expansion in production capacity, was resolved in June.
Some, such as Badr Jafar of Crescent Group, an Emirati business, think the Saudis use this power to keep things on an even keel. They act “as a kind of beneficial central bank for oil supply”, he says, “with price stability primary objective.” Others are less charitable. Saudi Arabia has twice flooded the market to lower prices, in 1986 so as to punish the cartel members who were not adhering to the cartel’s production quotas, and in 2014 to hurtshale-oil producers.
What does this endurance look like in a world with a structural decline in demand driven by climate policy? For the Gulf states the outlook is rosy. They produce a lot of oil cheaply and have the capital needed to produce more. Predictions of future supply see more of it coming from them, and the faster the world decarbonises the further their concentration goes.towards nuclear energy. Both are deploying renewables at home and looking to export them overseas.
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