One year in the next five will almost certainly be the hottest on record and there's a two-in-three chance a single year will cross the crucial 1.5 °C global warming threshold, an alarming new report by the World Meteorological Organization predicts.
Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update
So what is driving the bleak outlook for the next five years? An expected El Niño, on top of the overall global warming trend, will likely push the global temperature to record levels. Global average surface temperatures relative to 1850-1900 from major datasets. The temperature is increasing by about 0.2 °C per decade. The World Meteorological Organization update says there is a 98 percent chance at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record. And there's a 66 percent chance of at least one year over the 1.5 °C threshold.
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