White working-class voters were underestimated in 2016 polls, but may be overestimated now
. Photo: Hannah Yoon/Bloomberg via Getty Images Those of us in the political analysis industry love nothing more than slicing and dicing the electorate into its constituent parts and divining via polls and election results which are moving where at what velocity. That is often the best way not only to predict future elections, but to understand their implications, and also to evaluate political parties as coalitions.
There are times, of course, when harping on one group makes sense because polls are underestimating their numbers , or have ignored them altogether as a distinct group . In the most recent polls, white voters without a college degree back the president by 21 points, down from 31 points in March and April and down from the 29-point lead Mr. Trump held in the final polls of registered voters in 2016….In the most recent polls, white college graduates back Mr. Biden by a 20-point margin, up four points since the spring. It’s also an eight-point improvement for the Democratic nominee since 2016, and a 26-point improvement since 2012.Mr.
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