The gap between the mega-rich and merely rich has grown in the Champions League over the past five years, leaving a situation where shocks are hard to come by.
If you used AI to predict which teams would reach the latter stages of the 2023-24 Champions League, it would likely have picked those in this season's quarter-finals.
"But last year and this year it is just the big teams going through, so perhaps it is a sign the gap between rich and not so rich is getting bigger and you will get less and less shocks. Perhaps Porto beating Arsenal would not be a massive surprise but it would buck the trend at least.", but even in the case of Porto progressing, the Portuguese side were ranked lower than their Premier League opponents in the Uefa coefficients, making any shock value debatable.
The coefficient and format, combined with the increased wealth of the largest clubs, has meant the Champions League is now too predictable, according to Italian football expert Mina Rzouki. "So either we are going to create a competition that is just big games to keep us interested or we can find a way to redistribute the wealth in a better way that makes it more fun so that a Valencia could meet a PSG and win, or we could have Lazio v Manchester City and Lazio manage to pull off something exciting.
The 2024-25 Champions League will feature 36 teams in a single league, a new format which Uefa says creates a more competitive first phase, more big clashes, as well as greater diversity of teams to energise the appeal of the competition. "I don't think it will. All we see is more bigger games and more money into the coffers of the big clubs."
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