The world's most accurate economic forecaster sees a 'prolonged global slowdown' on the horizon — and warns it can only be narrowly avoided
that has raged for nearly two years has impacted the set of opportunities and risks in virtually every asset class.
. His expectations for the Euro economy have been the closest to reality from 2015 through 2018, and he was the most accurate on China in 2017 and 2018.consensus was too bullishSince then, trade between the US and China countries has been in freefall — to the extent that the quarterly contractions since Q4 2018 have put trade in its own mini-recession, according to Barraud. Last week, investors got two fresh pieces ofconfirming this spillover that Barraud has been warning about.
Even if the Trump administration reached a partial deal, it won't resolve the long-term structural conflict between the US and China — especially if it scores another election victory, Barraud said.
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