The New Zealand Dollar sits in a precarious situation as it finds itself between what is expected to be an aggressive RBNZ tightening cycle and geopolitical tensions around Ukraine. Get your weekly New Zealand Dollar forecast from ddubrovskyFX here:
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s first interest rate decision of the year is in focus on February 23. The central bank is expected to raise rates to 1.00% against 0.75% prior. Almost 7 rate hikes are priced in from overnight index swaps this year, making for what could be a potentially aggressive tightening cycle. This does mean that the central bank has a lot of expectations to meet.
Fourth-quarter New Zealand inflation and labor market data did surprise to the upside, making the case for an aggressive RBNZ. Still, the risk for the Kiwi Dollar could be tilted to the downside if the central bank does not manage to live up to such aggressive hawkish bets. This may result in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation.
On the other hand, taking a close look at the chart below, a majors-based New Zealand Dollar index can be seen struggling to follow the push higher in local 10-year government bond yields. The latter is a sign of increasing hawkish RBNZ policy bets. So perhaps the Kiwi Dollar has some catching up to do. Still, it is difficult to ignore the negative impact of fading market sentiment. With that in mind, it is a neutral call for the NZD in the week ahead.
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