Should we get worried?
A large part of the explanation relates to sea ice. This is a thin layer of seawater that freezes in winter and partially melts in the summer.
The sea ice is covered in a bright layer of snow which reflects around 85% of incoming solar radiation back out to space. The opposite occurs in the open ocean. As the darkest natural surface on the planet, the ocean absorbs 90% of solar radiation. When covered with sea ice, the Arctic Ocean acts like a large reflective blanket, reducing the absorption of solar radiation. As the sea ice melts, absorption rates increase, resulting in a positive feedback loop where the rapid pace of ocean warming further amplifies sea ice melt, contributing to even faster ocean warming.
This feedback loop is largely responsible for what is known as Arctic amplification and is the explanation for why the Arctic is warming so much more than the rest of the planet.Numerical climate models have been used to quantify the magnitude of Arctic amplification. They typically estimate the amplification ratio to be, meaning the Arctic is warming 2.5 times faster than the global average.
Rarely do the climate models obtain values as high as that. This suggests the models may not fully capture the complete feedback loops responsible for Arctic amplification and may, as a consequence, underestimate future Arctic warming and the potential consequences that accompany that.
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