To achieve net-zero emissions and climate impacts by 2050, the aviation industry could need as much as $1 trillion in carbon offsets – or fewer flyers
or synthetic fuels can help, but only up to a point. Without extreme reductions in aviation demand, the demand for sustainable aviation fuels in all scenarios would be more than double the total global production of biofuels in 2019. Doubling the production of biofuels would require the world to set aside as much as 3 million square kilometres of land for crops – equivalent to one-third the size of the US.
The aviation industry has an ambitious target of improving aircraft energy efficiency by 2 per cent or more per year, which alone could offset more than half of future growth in demand for air travel, says Davis. “The cost reduction of zero-emission aviation requires new technologies with greatly improved efficiencies both in fuel production and in aircraft propulsion,” says, a former program director for the US Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy.
Meanwhile, companies making conscious business travel decisions could encourage the industry to move toward net-zero aviation. “I see real opportunities for corporate action that prefers more efficient aircraft, low-contrail flights and especially increased demand for sustainable aviation fuels,” says Davis.
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