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Silver also gives Biden a 51% chance to win the popular vote with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. slated to take 4.3% of the popular vote. The mode’s returns are based on 40,000 simulations of the election.
Nate Silver's first forecast of this election season gives Donald Trump a 66% chance of winning at the moment. “The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win ,” he said. That conclusion is backed up by his model, which found “that Trump was favored by a slightly larger degree” than Silver had anticipated. like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” he added.
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