For the first time ever, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) of warming within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday.
But that did not necessarily mean the world would cross the long-term warming threshold of 1.5C above preindustrial levels set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The El Niño "will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory", said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas in a press statement. Unlike the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's climate projections which are based on future greenhouse gas emissions, the WMO update provides more of a prediction-based long-range weather forecast.
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