Moderate US job growth slowdown expected in September

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Moderate US job growth slowdown expected in September
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Moderate US job growth slowdown expected in September

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An employee hiring sign is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

Labor market resilience, which is underpinning demand in the economy, raises the risk that the U.S. central bank could hike rates again by year end. Most economists believe it is done raising rates, but will rather keep monetary policy tight for some time. Some economists believe payrolls could surprise on the upside, noting that first-time applications for state unemployment benefits dropped in September to the lower end of their 194,000-265,000 band for this year.

According to Clark, the decline in initial jobless claims from mid-September likely reflected fewer post-summer layoffs as the initial hiring was also less, which she said should similarly result in somewhat stronger September payrolls. The unemployment rate was forecast falling to 3.7% after surging to 3.8% in August, the highest since February 2022. It was driven by a jump among the 20-24 age group, viewed as a volatile cohort.

Labor market strength is helping to sustain the economy, with growth estimates for the third quarter as high as a 4.9% annualized pace, well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary rate of around 1.8%.

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