The novel coronavirus has upended how banks manage lending risk, with decades of data rendered moot by a once-in-a-lifetime mix of global economic shutdowns, unprecedented government support and an uncertain path to recovery.
FILE PHOTO: A cyclist is seen infront of the Bank of England as the spread of the coronavirus disease continues, London, Britain, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/John Sibley
The problem is particularly acute where the virus is reshaping whole industries such as travel, hospitality and sport. Government support schemes that are propping up some firms are also clouding the outlook. One example would be a British pub with a beer garden. It will likely be able to serve many more customers than one with only indoor space under social distancing rules - a brighter prospect unlikely to be captured by existing models.Banks in the U.S.
“These backward looking models are designed to tell you that you have a problem, they’re not designed to tell you what you do about it,” said Philip Hammond, a former British finance minister who now advises SoftBank Group Corp-backed OakNorth.
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