Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They’re Wrong.

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Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They’re Wrong.
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Many Americans are convinced crime is rising in the U.S. They're wrong. Via FiveThirtyEight:

. And there are plenty of crimes we don’t really track well in data — like vandalism, drug use and sales, or public intoxication — which can affect how safe people feel in their neighborhoods, even if the crimes aren’t serious.

The way the polls are worded also don’t help. “The polling tends to be pretty generic,” said Lisa L. Miller, a political scientist at Rutgers University who studies crime and punishment, which makes it hard to capture the difference between how Americans think about murder and litter when it comes to how safe they feel. More importantly, she said, questions like “Do you think crime has gone up or down?” is not the same thing as measuring fear.

“All the homicides in Chicago occur in about 8 percent of the city’s census tracts,” Skogan said. For almost everybody, he said, that means “the crime you hear about is crime somewhere else.” And that matters because research suggeststhan they are at estimating what it’s like across town, or across the country.

people perceive their neighborhood as more dangerous — regardless of the actual crime rate — if more young Black men live there

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