Economists will be closely watching the latest figures to see whether the downward trend in job cuts has been slowed or reversed by the many states that are pausing or rolling back their reopening plans.
A broad measure of layoffs in the U.S. likely declined again but remained elevated last week, pushing the total during the coronavirus-induced economic crisis over the past four months above a staggering 51 million.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the Labor Department will report Thursday that 1.25 million Americans filed initial applications for unemployment benefits – a rough measure of layoffs – for the week ending July 11. That would mark a drop from 1.3 million the prior week and the 15th straight weekly decline after first-time claims peaked at 6.9 million at the end of March.
Yet that forecast is threatened by a spike in coronavirus cases across much of the country, particularly the South and West, and decisions by more than 20 states to pause or reverse the reopening of restaurants, bars, gyms, movie theaters and other outlets. That could spark a new wave of layoffs, especially in hard-hit states like Texas, Florida, Arizona and California, and possibly even push the claims totals higher.
“Renewed increases in layoffs will slow the pace of recovery, especially if temporary job losses become permanent,” Farooqi wrote in a note to clients.Walmart and Sam's Club to require masks nationwide starting July 20 as COVID-19 cases rise
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