Many are now forecasting a recession in 2020.
As the coronavirus continues to roil stock markets and leads to widespread business shutdowns across the country, a growing number of top banks on Wall Street have been issuing increasingly dire forecasts on the economic turmoil caused by the pandemic, with many saying that a recession will hit in 2020—if it hasn’t already done so.to U.S.
Morgan Stanley warned investors of the same thing: “Global recession in 2020 is now our base case,” the firm’s chief economist, Chetan Ahya, , predicting global economic growth to slow to 0.9% this year—the lowest level seen since the 2008 crisis.that the U.S. economy will contract by 12.9% in the second quarter, with the coronavirus-driven declines set to"substantially exceed anything previously recorded going back to at least World War II," according to a note Wednesday.” of almost 10% in second-quarter GDP, while also predicting a deep recession in the first half of 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.
But: Most of the economists at the big banks listed above still predict the economy will rebound later in 2020, or by 2021 at the latest.Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief U.S. equity strategist for JPMorgan Chase, is so bullish on a rebound that he expects the S&P 500 to reach 3,400 points, or 47% higher than its current level, by 2021. Before that happens, he
, GDP will shrink 14% in the second quarter—a steeper decline than the 8.4% drop experienced in the fourth quarter of 2008.CNBC last Thursday that the coronavirus pandemic will cost U.S. corporations up to $4 trillion. “What’s happening has not happened in our lifetime before. ... What we have is a crisis,” Dalio said, also adding, “a lot of people are going to be broke.”
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