JPMorgan expects the China property sector to account for nearly 40% of all high yield default volumes in emerging markets in 2023.
JPMorgan raised its 2023 global emerging markets corporate high-yield default forecast to 9.7% from 6% in a note dated Aug. 15.
It also raised its Asia high yield default rate forecast to 10% from 4.1% — that figure drops to just 1%, if China property is excluded. The bank expects China property to account for nearly 40% of all emerging market corporate high-yield default volumes in 2023.Signage at a residential project developed by Country Garden Holdings Co. in Baoding, Hebei province, China, on Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023.JPMorgan raised its global emerging markets corporate high-yield default forecast, largely due to rising contagion fears in China's property sector from a possibleThe U.S.-based investment bank raised its 2023 global forecast to 9.
JPMorgan expects China property to account for nearly 40% of all default volumes in 2023, followed by 35% from Russian corporates and 12% from Brazilian issuers. The magnitude of the increase in JPMorgan's default risk assessment underscores fears that a Country Garden debt default will have a far broader ripple effect on the Chinese property sector and the broader economy.
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