The figures that were reported Thursday morning aren’t wrong, but they are misleading, RexNutting writes
The headlines this morning say that more people filed for unemployment benefits last week for the first time since March, according to the Labor Department. But the reported increase is merely a statistical mirage.
In the real world, slightly fewer people lost their jobs last week than the week before. The widely anticipated re-weakening in the labor market in reaction to the surge in coronavirus infections isn’t yet showing up in the weekly claims data.For one, the 1.42 million initial claims widely reported by the media don’t include the 975,000 people who filed for federal unemployment benefits under the CARES Act. Furthermore, the 1.
In the real world, the number of people filing initial claims, including claims for federal pandemic benefits, dropped from 2.45 million to 2.35 million in the week ending July 18. A month ago, that figure was 2.34 million. But, as we all know, these are not usual times. The usual seasonal ebbs and flows have been disrupted. For instance, the auto makers did not shut down their factories as they usually do around the Fourth of July. But the data still get seasonally adjusted as if shutdowns did happen.
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