Back-to-back winners on Thursday and Friday seem like a big deal, especially in light of the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.
Let's say you wanted to design a program to lower inflation. Wouldn't you do exactly what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is doing? You would be raising rates aggressively, and I defy you to say that he isn't doing just that. You would ignore positive numbers like the weak consumer price index print last week by sending out Chris Waller — one of the more hawkish Fed governors — this past weekend to say that the interest rate hikes are far from over.
The old me would say, "What a bunch of selfish bastards." The new me simply says, "I know where they are coming from, but they are ill-advised." Consider: Last Thursday and Friday were back-to-back winners, something that's very rare in this year-old bear market. If you bought at the market high on Thursday, you are still up. I can count on one hand how many times that has happened since the peak.That's a tough question, because in order for the Fed to get all of its boxes checked, Powell needs wages to level off and that has not happened.
Take it a step further: Another unknown is the amount of money invested in FAANG/M . If you are in the S&P 500, you are certainly feeling punished, but if you are mostly in FAANG/M, you are feeling broke. At one time I thought these sectors were too small to make a difference. You would need mass layoffs in retail, autos, housing, you name it — all but the insatiable health sector.
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