While other elite players must find the dominance of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic daunting, recent results offer them hope
than 15 years, the “big three” of men’s tennis—Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic—have had a stranglehold of the game. They have won 60 of the past 73 grand-slams, the sport’s most important tournaments, winning 20 each. All three have enjoyed periods as the undisputed champion. But in recent years, as injuries andhave ravaged Messrs Nadal and Federer, Mr Djokovic has surged ahead.
More tellingly, the gulf between Mr Djokovic and players lower down the ranks is narrowing too. In 2015, after arguably the greatest year in tennis, Mr Djokovic registered an Elo rating of 2,434, which surpassed the peaks of Mr Federer and Mr Nadal . The gap then between Mr Djokovic and the 20th Elo-ranked player was 515 points, the highest it has been in the past twenty years. In 2021 that gap was down to 274 points, the lowest since 2003, when Mr Federer’s era of dominance was just beginning.
For a reminder of a more egalitarian era, look to the early 2000s. In the four years before 2004, 11 different players won a grand-slam, but it took another 17 years to have 11 different winners again. Such variety is a boon for fans who crave uncertainty and love the underdog. But devotees of the big three, and of the supreme quality of tennis that they produce, will rue their fading dominance.
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