Iron ore prices are on track to end 2022 at their lowest in the last three or four years and will probably languish next year as well, with China and Europe cutting steel output, while pressure mounts from additional supply.
Price forecasts for the key steelmaking ingredient range from about $90 a tonne to a high of $115 by the end of the year, a Reuters survey of five analysts and researchers shows.Year-end prices have not been in this territory since the 2019 figure of $93 a tonne, itself off the even lower 2018 level of $72.60, data from consultancy SteelHome shows.
Spot prices of ore bound for China, maker of about half the world’s steel, have fallen roughly 40% from this year’s peak above $160 in March, as it sticks to tough COVID-19 curbs and its property sector battles a liquidity crunch and weak demand. A collapse in ore prices would hit major producers, such as BHP Group, Rio Tinto, Vale SA, and others in Australia and No. 2 supplier Brazil.“We feel confident enough to say that, at a minimum, China will be a source of stability over the coming year,” said Huw McKay, the firm’s vice president for market analysis and economics.
“As majors grow volumes, Chinese domestic supply will need to be curtailed to make room,” they said in a report last month, projecting an additional 50 million tonnes of supply in 2023 from big producers, including Brazil’s Vale.
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