Anticipated talks of a new nuclear deal leading to an influx of Iranian oil into the market often create market instability, though such a deal hasn't materialized and a sudden flood of oil is unlikely.
- Jul 03, 2023, 6:00 PM CDT
As Iran has the potential to produce another million barrels per day, its ongoing production increase, especially if sanctions are lifted, could conflict with OPEC's and specifically Saudi Arabia's efforts to regulate the market and maintain high oil prices.Reports of Iran/U.S. talks have surfaced repeatedly over the last couple of years, spooking the markets each time it’s suggested that Iran’s oil could return to the market.
These figures are analogous to the frog being unaware it is being slow-boiled. Iran’s production over the last two years is slowly increasing, despite the sanctions on its oil industry—and it’s already becoming a problem for OPEC, which is desperately trying to regain its clout after losing a fair chunk of it to U.S. shale for a few years.
Shipping data—often culled by the painstaking efforts of ship tracking companies such as Tanker Trackers—suggests that Iran has been exporting its crude oil all along, despite the sanctions.
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