How quickly will oil supply climb as normality returns?
the world in lockdown from covid-19 and oil demand sinking faster than at any time in history, oil producers from Dhahran to the Delaware basin made the only possible choice: cut supply, fast. American output fell by about 2m barrels a day between March and May. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to reduce supply by a record 9.7m barrels a day in May and June.
That would mark a dramatic shift. Because oil reserves are depleted continuously, producers have usually operated under the tenet of drill or die. An analyst once asked Lee Raymond, then the chief executive of Exxon, what kept him up at night. “Reserve replacement,” he responded. Investment began falling, though, even before the pandemic. A crash in prices from 2014 to 2016 had sapped appetite for big, risky projects. Even after prices climbed in 2017 poor returns made investors less interested in reserve replacement than cash flow. Companies have squeezed suppliers and found ways to pump more oil from existing fields. ExxonMobil and Chevron are among the giants to invest in America’s shale basins, where output is relatively easy to ramp up and down.
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