Oil markets will continue to tighten in the second and third quarters amid growing supply risks including the rollover of voluntary supply cuts from OPEC into Q2 2024
Oil markets will continue to tighten in the second and third quarters amid growing supply risks including the rollover of voluntary supply cuts from OPEC into Q2 2024, Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russia’s refineries as well as constant disruptions to oil flows through the Red Sea, ING Global Market Research has predicted. ING Global has hiked its oil price forecast from US$80/bbl to US$87/bbl for the second quarter and from US$82/bbl to US$88/bbl for the third quarter.
Meanwhile, ING Global has predicted that interest rate cuts by the Fed are likely to lead to an increase in speculative interest in the oil futures market. According to ING, long positions have increased significantly in the current year compared to the previous year from around 100k lots to a little over 230k lots currently. ING, however, has pointed out that positioning remains fairly modest compared to pre-2022 levels despite the unfolding risks hanging over the markets.
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