As consumer price growth continued its slowdown in May, the lowest level it has reached since March 2021 when the inflationary spike began, some are asking whether it could mean the American economy is on the rebound.
PrintAs consumer price growth continued its slowdown in May, some are asking whether it could mean the American economy is on the rebound., the lowest level it has reached since March 2021 when the inflationary spike began. That news comes as unemployment has remained relatively flat for months and gas prices sit at just under $3.60 per gallon nationally, according to AAA.
Furman and other economists said the headline inflation has come down dramatically, which is good news. But if food and energy costs — which are particularly volatile and known to fluctuate — are removed from the data, they noted the inflation rate on a monthly basis remained stubborn, rising by 0.4% or more, the same as it did the month before.
In some ways, Yaros said, inflation is a messaging issue. Declining costs, like flagging gas prices last month, are beneficial because it reduces the consumer expectation of inflation. The reason rising costs were so consistent in the 1970s and 1980s, he said, was in part because consumers began to expect them and were willing to finance higher and higher prices.released Monday showed that one-year inflation expectations had fallen to 4.1%, which is its lowest point since May 2021.
Furman noted the Federal Reserve remains far from where it wants to be, and it is difficult to know whether they will be able to resolve the issue without too much economic pain. In its history, he said, the Fed has never engineered a soft landing from such a high inflationary period.
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