NEW DELHI : The Indian government will present a budget on Feb. 1 that will likely put deficit reduction ahead of vote-winning spending, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks towards seeking a rare third term of office in 2024.Officials and economists said the large size of recent deficits and a need
NEW DELHI : The Indian government will present a budget on Feb. 1 that will likely put deficit reduction ahead of vote-winning spending, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks towards seeking a rare third term of office in 2024.
As India faces weakening demand for its exports from the slowing economies of trading partners, its own growth is still recovering from the damage of pandemic controls. "The upcoming budget faces acute policy trade-offs between nurturing a nascent growth recovery and diminishing fiscal space with challenging debt dynamics," Madhavi Arora, economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said.
The international slowdown will hold down growth in nominal GDP - real growth plus inflation - to about 11 per cent for 2023/24 from an estimated 15.4 per cent for 2022/23. That will lead to lower growth in tax collection. "The government's promised fiscal consolidation path will require a Herculean effort over the next few year," HSBC economist Pranjul Bhandari said, adding that cutting budget deficits would be necessary for controlling inflation.
India has not met many of those objectives and is struggling to create enough jobs. Economic growth is no longer as fast as it was before 2014.
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