Most of the developments that could produce a Trump comeback and win are beyond the president’s control. ed_kilgore writes that time, and not much else, is currently on the president's side
Trump may not be the master of his political destiny. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images A lot of superstitious Democrats may look at the unveiling of FiveThirtyEight’s initial presidential election forecast for November and experience a sense of dizziness and nausea: it gives Trump a 29 percent chance of reelection, precisely what FiveThirtyEight gave him in its final forecast of the 2016 election.
One “known known” is that presidential elections ususally tighten as Election Day nears, a tendency that should be strengthened by today’s powerful forces of partisan and ideological polarization . Silver points to a reminder of leads in past presidential contests at this point in the cycle: I would personally add three more “known knowns” to the equation, and neither is good for Trump: the minor party vote is almost certain to be down this year, and there will not be a lot of over-confident would-be Democrats casting “protest votes” or deliberately staying home. The magnitude of these changes from 2016 isn’t clear, to be sure, but it’s hard to deny they could matter.
Similarly economic trends have been so wild this year that it’s unclear how to get a fix on them as a factor influencing the election. Silver writes:
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