None of the forecast models predicted that Dorian — last year's deadliest storm — would strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane with sustained wind speeds as high as 185 mph, a new report finds.
As it began to take shape, forecasters were unable to determine where the storm's center would be. The head of the National Hurricane Center, Ken Graham said,"Dorian's forecast was extremely difficult because we were tracking three centers." One early track for Dorian had it crossing over Hispaniola where high mountains were expected to tear the storm apart. Another showed it heading toward Florida. The surprise came when, as Dorian formed, its track shifted to the right.
After the formation stage, the NHC report said forecasters mostly got the storm's track right. Where forecasters and the computer models fell short was predicting Dorian's intensity. None of the models anticipated Dorian would strengthen into a catastrophic Category 5 storm with sustained wind speeds as high as 185 miles per hour.
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