This is the reason attempting to social distance forever would backfire.
If our pediatric EDs and ICUs are indeed being overrun due to immune debt caused by COVID-19 precautions, does that mean their implementation was unwise in the first place? Or that we should abandon them going forward? Or should we insteadWhile fewer viral infections are good, so is hugging grandma, in-person school, and play dates with friends. Permanently suppressing respiratory viruses is nothing like eliminating foodborne illness, diarrheal disease, or malaria.
Using interventions in this second category therefore accrues immunity debt , which will be painfully paid off with widespread surges .Notably, this debt may be worthwhile when the benefit of temporarily avoiding infection is worth the risk of future disease and the annoyance of NPIs. For example, when health care systems are becoming overwhelmed, using NPIs to “flatten the curve” and allow provision of proper care is prudent.
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