WASHINGTON : A severe fragmentation of the global economy after decades of increasing economic integration could reduce global economic output by up to 7 per cent, but the losses could reach 8-12 per cent in some countries, if technology is also decoupled, the International Monetary Fund said in a new staff repo
Tne IMF said even limited fragmentation could shave 0.2 per cent off of global GDP, but said more work was needed to assess the estimated costs to the international monetary system and the global financial safety net .
"The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have further tested international relations and increased skepticism about the benefits of globalization," the staff report said. The unraveling of trade links"would most adversely impact low-income countries and less well-off consumers in advanced economies," it said.
The IMF said existing studies suggested that the deeper the fragmentation, the deeper the costs, with technological decoupling significantly amplifying losses from trade restrictions.
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