Even if the industry can eventually cut expenses and jump over technological hurdles, asteroid mining will remain commercial science fiction for some time.
Consider the OSIRIS-REx space mission, the little probe I viewed that — after an incredible 4 billion-mile seven-year roundtrip — released a capsule in the Utah desert bearing a sample from asteroid 101955 Bennu. This technological triumph will, I hope, inspire more children to enthusiastically pursue science. But at a cost of $1.1 billion, including launch and operation, the unmanned spacecraft wasn’t a bargain.
Sure enough, costs may drop. At least that’s the main storyline the industry has pushed for the past decade. Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries, two now-defunct wannabe asteroid-mining companies, bet on it in 2012. It didn’t work, though, despite the headline-grabbing prominence of some backers, including Titanic filmmaker James Cameron and Google co-founder Larry Page.
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