Abundant warm ocean waters are set to cause Hurricane Idalia to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane before striking the Gulf Coast of Florida and bringing significant impacts
The ingredients are coming together for Florida to once again be hit by major hurricane less than a year after Hurricane Ian caused widespread damage across the state. Hurricane Idalia is moving into the Gulf of Mexico, where widespread ocean warmth is expected to cause it to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane before slamming into the state’s Gulf Coast. Idalia is predicted to bring a substantial storm surge, winds and flood-inducing rains to Florida and other parts of the Southeast.
Idalia first formed as a tropical depression near the Yucatán Channel between Mexico and Cuba on Saturday, after which it strengthened into a tropical storm on Sunday morning and became a hurricane early on Tuesday. Like all tropical cyclones of the ocean at most, however, says Nick Shay, a professor or meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.
That is particularly the case for Idalia, which is moving over a feature called the Loop Current—an area of warm water that travels up into the Gulf from the Caribbean and that doesn’t mix much with deeper, colder waters. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita also went over the Loop Current in 2005, and it fueled their explosive development, Shay says.
Rapid intensification is particularly dangerous when it happens right before a storm makes landfall—as is predicted for Idalia—because it can surprise those in harm’s way. Responding to that risk, the U.S. National Hurricane Center is using a new forecast model this season to help better predict rapid intensification.
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