Vladimir Putin is mobilising Russia for a conflict that could last a generation. This is how Ukraine can win
there is so much to mourn. The dead, on both sides. The living, scattered across Europe by Russian missiles. The world’s poor, struggling to buy bread. But, addressing his nation this week, Vladimir Putin was unrepentant.
In the fighting and in the long years of the heavily armed stand-off that comes afterwards, Ukraine will prevail only when Mr Putin—or, more likely, his successor—concludes that further aggression would gravely weaken him at home. Western leaders need to signal their resolve to Russia and to prepare their own people for the confrontation ahead.
It should take all it can. The strategic reason for this is that a rump Ukraine would be impoverished and hard to defend. The east and south of the country are sources of minerals and crops, and centres of industry. Unhindered access to the Black Sea provides safe passage for Ukrainian exports.
At the recent Munich Security Conference several countries said they were in favour—even France may be open to the idea. However,membership requires consensus. If that is unattainable, Ukraine would need bilateral guarantees and lots of arms, so that it is like a European Israel, too indigestible for another Russian invasion to make sense.
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